13 replies to this topic

[Skiing#1]

http://www.ksl.com/?...148&sid=4614755

Utah ski industry optimistic about upcoming ski season
October 24th, 2008 @ 6:10pm

The slumping economy raises serious questions for the Utah ski and snowboard industry. People who work in the ski industry say they're optimistic, but they're realistic about the impact of the economy.

Worldwide, the ski and snowboard industry could be looking for a lift this winter. From the Rockies to the Alps, resorts brace for a skid but hope for a blizzard of business.

"There have been cancellations, as of late, due to the economic crisis we're in. But I think that when the snow falls, people get excited, they're going to ski," said Adam Barker, spokesman for the Salt Lake Convention and Visitors Bureau.

A spokeswoman for the Park City Lodging Association says it doesn't keep specific stats, but she hears early bookings are down anywhere from 10 to 15 percent to as much as 40 percent.

Snow riders may plan four-day weekend trips rather than week-long vacations. "That's where we have an advantage over a bunch of other destinations, in that we are a legitimate three-day weekend destination. They're time crunched and money crunched," Barker said.

So, in-town lodging and creative package deals will pop up.

Snowbird says bookings are down slightly, season pass sales are up, but they are offering discount deals on rooms in the Cliff Lodge into the Christmas holiday season.

According to Ski Utah, skier days topped $4 million for the third year in a row. Last season Utah hosted a record of 4.25 million skiers.

That pumps more than $700 million into the economy through lodging, passes, transportation and related expenses.

"Most importantly, we're coming off a record from last year, so that makes us cautiously optimistic for the upcoming season," Barker said.

Utah snow riding is affordable and accessible, and that may help our resorts more than other states.

For information on Utah's ski and snowboard resorts and their offers, click the related links.

E-mail: jboal@ksl.com

[Callao]

Hard to say. Snowfall may have a greater impact on skier visits than a souring economy. NSAA discusses the issue, comparing economic and climate variables in past years, with total skier visits.
SAM sums up a report from NSAA:


NSAA OUTLINES POTENTIAL BUSINESS IMPACTS OF ECONOMY, SNOWFALL
October 9, 2008

SAM Magazine—Lakewood, Colo., Oct. 9, 2008—A special NSAA report prepared by RRC Associates concludes that snowfall will be a greater indicator of visits this coming season than the economy. The report is based on an analysis of visits, snowfall, economic conditions, and consumer confidence over the past 30 years.

RRC outlines two different scenarios for the coming season. In the first, the economy and consumer confidence are weak, but snow is plentiful and consistent throughout the season. In this case, snow quality, temperatures, and timing of snowfall will determine area visits. The clearest example of this is from 1981-82, when the economy was in recession but good snowfall led to a rebound in visits from the previous poor season—from 39.7 to 50.7 million visits.

If the economy and consumer confidence are weak and snowfall is erratic, however (the second scenario), poor snow and a weak economy can combine to reduce visits dramatically. Such was the case in both 1980-81 and 1990-91, the two years with the lowest visitation over the study period (39.7 and 46.7 million visits respectively).

The report concludes that if snow is good, even a significant economic downturn will likely have only a “moderate” impact on visits. However, it notes, “the macroeconomic conditions that will set the tone for this season are already in place. At the very least we anticipate seeing skiers and snowboarders staying closer to home, utilizing less expensive, drive oriented, regional resorts, and taking more day trips.”

“When the snow comes, it has never been more vital for smart resort operators to already have in place the right products and packages to stimulate demand,” the report continues. “This means creating the right products for each of your key market segments.” The report concludes, “This season will represent a unique test of how effectively we meet our growth goals in the face of significant challenges.”

The full report is available at www.nsaa.org/nsaa/members/NSAA_Econ_special_report.pdf.
Ski Area Management

[LuvPow]

The economy is tough on all resorts, I've heard threw the gossip tree that Revelstoke is in financial difficulty, took on a new partner or something... I think with the banks not lending it is hard on all buisness.

[Peter]

Revelstoke, Tamarack, Moonlight Basin, Kicking Horse...there seems to be a pattern here.

[mikest2]

The Canadian dollar dropping back down to 80 ish cents is, I think going to help soften the blow to BC and Ab resorts. I think we have a pretty solid following in the PNW that should not change much. I don't think we should put too much faith in the expert's opinions, look what they did for our investments ! I for one, and I don't think I am alone, will cut back on a lot of things, but NOT my family's vacation. Let us, as an industry, not panic like those Wall St morons did. They were responsible for their own undoing. We have built it......... they will come.

[LuvPow]

Skier, on Oct 31 2008, 07:54 PM, said:

Revelstoke, Tamarack, Moonlight Basin, Kicking Horse...there seems to be a pattern here.

I don't think Kicking Horse is in any trouble... those other resorts where planned when the banks and the economy were booming... so they are dependant on the banks for improvements. Now that that rug has been pulled out from under them, they have to make some serious changes.

[floridaskier]

The only resorts I worry about are the new ones like Revelstoke and Tamarack that were built entirely on the assumption that they could sell a lot of condos quickly. Hopefully the new owners of The Canyons know what they're doing, especially in a slumping economy for a resort that was designed around condos too much. The long-established resorts will have a down year, but they've had down years before and life goes on.

[zeedotcom]

I'm in the Wisconsin Dells tourist trap area in Wisconsin. We had an unusual year which was the result of several factors:
1. High gas prices discouraged some people from traveling, both nationally (we had fewer people from far away) and regionally (smaller crowds overall).
2. The economy as a whole was starting to feel some effect from everything, including high gas prices.
3. Our lake, which many claim to be the centerpiece of the area (which is false, but irrelevant) was drained due to a breach from the massive June flooding that the region experienced.

What I observed was that overall, people were either shortening vacations and therefor spending less time actually doing vacation stuff, or were canceling vacations entirely in some cases. I did notice that many people were traveling regionally, rather than nationally (ie people were coming here from Illinois instead of going to Florida like they usually do).

What was interesting was that the people who came seemed to be spending the same amount of money per day and not really pinching pennies day to day. While this has no basis in a statistical study, it was my general observation that once people had made the leap to deciding that they were going on vacation, they ceased to worry about it so much and just got on with the fun.

As long as we can convince people to go at all, it shouldn't be a bad winter. Coming off of a record snow year in this area, and a good year overall nationally, hopefully people will make the decision to go, even if it is for a day or two less than normal.

[Callao]

Quote

Revelstoke, Tamarack, Moonlight Basin, Kicking Horse...there seems to be a pattern here.

That "pattern" you see is a debt ratio that is too high. Risky and lucrative, but unable to stand tough times.

From Oct 31 2008, 09:43 PM:

The Canadian dollar dropping back down to 80 ish cents is, I think going to help soften the blow to BC and Ab resorts. I think we have a pretty solid following in the PNW that should not change much. I don't think we should put too much faith in the expert's opinions, look what they did for our investments ! I for one, and I don't think I am alone, will cut back on a lot of things, but NOT my family's vacation. Let us, as an industry, not panic like those Wall St morons did. They were responsible for their own undoing. We have built it......... they will come.

Am I hearing this on such a liberal site? Remember, that it was President Bush who made it "patriotic" to go shopping and spend after 9/11. It helps the economy in the short run.

This would really put a damper on the economy right now, but I think that it would improve the long-run significantly--and it would have been refreshing to hear Bush say it seven years ago--

Save your money. Pocket it. Invest it.

Then again, it is your debt ratio--which could, for all I know, be a fat zero.

[Carl]

Well, the Wasatch got 4 feet plus and the lifts are running. If that doesn't boost ticket sales then nothing can help!

JMHO,

Carl

[fun in the sun]

this economy is going to get the ski biz-- Intrawest now saying they are laying off -- I am waiting to see Vail and Intrawest to show up in Wash DC looking for a bailout -- we are too big to let fail !!

AIG has gotten money to save Stowe -- why not Vail ? Let them eat condo's and hotel rooms

[mikest2]

New story on MSNBC today.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27845787/

[aug]

Snow farmers predicting doom and gloom even before the season gets started . The economy does not drive this business, the passion for the mountains does. If there is good conditions there will be a good season for the bean counters and the skiers/boarders. Bad weather , Bad economy, give me a break . Just take it how it comes.

[Lift Dinosaur]

aug, on Nov 24 2008, 07:48 PM, said:

Snow farmers predicting doom and gloom even before the season gets started . The economy does not drive this business, the passion for the mountains does. If there is good conditions there will be a good season for the bean counters and the skiers/boarders. Bad weather , Bad economy, give me a break . Just take it how it comes.

I'm with aug. If it snows, they will come. If not, the speculators - like "fun in the sun" (anyone can point out the obvious) will say "I told ya so".

Dino