6 replies to this topic

[trj820]

Thoughts, anyone?
http://unofficialnet...to-b-c-ski-area

[woofydoggie]

Well,,,, I think that this will end up in a big fail down the road. They should just get funds for snowmaking before going bananas with hotels, and golf courses. There is definitely room for expansion, but they are getting ahead of themselves. Decade long master plans seem much better than setting the path of a mountain for the next half century, especially in this case.





Sorry but:

[teachme]

I grew up in Vancouver and was CSPS patrol (volunteer) up there for a few years in the 90's so know it well and can give some insights. First, the snow is very variable. Last year they did not open at all due to the warm winter. Other years I have seen 10 meters at the top. It says something about higher lifts but not sure how much higher. I do not remember anything in sight more than say 200 meters higher (but may be wrong).

I read this though as more than just a ski resort expansion. Summers up there are wonderful. Golf, mountain biking and other outdoor sports could perhaps be more financially stable than winter operations. My guess is the ski resort is an excuse for a year round resort. This I see as at least a reasonable possibility as Vancouver has grown so big and traffic has gotten so bad that people up the Fraser Valley have virtually given up going to Vancouver's North Shore or Whistler as it just takes too long in bad traffic.

With that in mind a large resort such as this in the valley for local people is not a bad idea. Getting expensive hotel condos filled may be a bit difficult, but the Canadian dollar is low so perhaps conferences from the US would come? The Valley also has a very good airport in Abotsford about 1 hour drive from terminal to resort parking lot so not bad that way either. Airport has good connections through Westjet. Lastly, I do not know, but with the native involvement there may be plans to build casinos up there. That is however only a guess.

So, I would say it has a some potential as a mega-resort with skiing (but NOT a mega ski resort!!) and a day trip destination for people up the valley.

On the other hand, if I was an investor I would not put my money there - seems too high risk. Off the top of my head, the same plans at Grouse Mountain would seem to have a lower risk (not that Grouse is looking or anything). In the same line, something in Squamish or at Big White might also be a better option. Key point again though may be the local native band involvement.

Hope that helps

[SkiDaBird]

My main thought is that they will have build name recognition or it will just be another Canyons. At some point, you have to get return on investment, and $1.5 Billion is a huge investment. Should be interesting to see how it goes.

[Andy1962]

$1.5 Billion over 50 years is about $30 million a year invested, without inflation being part of the equation. Vail bought Park city last year for $182.5 million. That's a mostly fully mature ski resort with a huge cash flow and modern lifts already in place. So Vail turned around and used a whole years cash flow to reinvest $50 million in the new Park City to make it better. . Hemlock Resort does not have free cash flow and modern lifts now , so the owners (investors) will be using other people's money (borrowed) to build the new place. Predict about five to six years of investing at max $150 million spent before the whole place goes flat on a couple of seasons of no snow (unless they spend $10 million up front on snow making, which won't happen)

Much smarter to buy an existing ski resort and use it's own cash flow to reinvest and build it bigger. In this age of changing climate, I doubt any bank will want this liability (may a government would) :) sob. :(

[Mike12164]

No way this will work, the west coast is way over saturated with ski resorts, nearby Manning Park can hardly keep the doors open and they're far more reliable in the natural snow department.

With the new Port Mann Bridge and upgrades to the Surrey and Coquitlam sections of Highway 1 the traffic backups to and from the Fraser Valley generally aren't too bad anymore. Combine that with the fact that 2/3 of the North Shore resorts have snowmaking and all 3 have modern lifts AND night skiing 7 days a week and people will just go there instead.

The upgrades to Highway 99 for the Olympics probably didn't do Hemlock any favors either since that shaved 45 minutes to an hour off the drive to Whistler.

[dhowe@nwlink.com]

One thing that Hemlock has going for it is that the terrain skis really well compared to Grouse and Seymour (on the north shore) which seem really limited and awkward to ski. Big drawback to Hemlock is the corkscrew, unpaved access road. If they can solve that problem and replace the ancient lifts they'd have a really fun ski area. I've skied there several times over the years and they always had enough snow.