The Misconception of El Nino for West Coas...
Kelly
23 Dec 2020
Reflecting La Nina predictions…
California Department of Water Resources measurement of current vs. past precipitation of 8 key northern water regions – then divided by 8 to get an average. The chart is called the eight-station index and has been recording since 1920. Current year (12/22/20) is blue line in lower left corner.
8-Station-Dec-2020.jpg (100.41K)
Number of downloads: 19
Perhaps a ski area marketing gift – the GFS weather model is forecasting some white stuff for Christmas Day in Lake Tahoe area.
California Department of Water Resources measurement of current vs. past precipitation of 8 key northern water regions – then divided by 8 to get an average. The chart is called the eight-station index and has been recording since 1920. Current year (12/22/20) is blue line in lower left corner.
8-Station-Dec-2020.jpg (100.41K)
Number of downloads: 19
Perhaps a ski area marketing gift – the GFS weather model is forecasting some white stuff for Christmas Day in Lake Tahoe area.
Kelly
19 Oct 2021
Fall Winter 2021 ENSO Forecast
Weak La Nina
From NOAA Climate
87% means there is a strong correlation with the 5 tracking indexes.
Strong correlation to 70-71, 95-95, 07-08 winters
Pete Parsons Northwest Overview:
https://www.youtube....h?v=l1dxRitkcsE
see Post #18 for more La Nina information
My forecast…again going out on a limb I am forecasting better early season skiing at Whistler rather than Mammoth…but Mammoth might see snow next week.
Weak La Nina
From NOAA Climate
Quote
…La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—has returned to the tropical Pacific this month, and there's an 87% chance it will last through the Northern Hemisphere winter…
87% means there is a strong correlation with the 5 tracking indexes.
Strong correlation to 70-71, 95-95, 07-08 winters
Pete Parsons Northwest Overview:
https://www.youtube....h?v=l1dxRitkcsE
see Post #18 for more La Nina information
My forecast…again going out on a limb I am forecasting better early season skiing at Whistler rather than Mammoth…but Mammoth might see snow next week.
Kelly
24 Oct 2022
2022 2023 Season
We are still in mild La Nina.
3 seasons in La Nina is somewhat rare so there is a high likelihood that this will not last and ENSO is to go to Neutral mid to late winter – chart below.
ENSO-2022-23.jpg (100.48K)
Number of downloads: 14
A quotes from NOAA…
“The outlook (precipitation) does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”
“Mild La Nina forecasts are the least accurate of the ENSO forecasts”
Precipitation probabilities chart for 2022-23
Precip-2022-23.jpg (99.76K)
Number of downloads: 18
Somewhat matching years with mild La Nina’s
1998-99
2007-08
2010-11
Use same links shown above posts
We are still in mild La Nina.
3 seasons in La Nina is somewhat rare so there is a high likelihood that this will not last and ENSO is to go to Neutral mid to late winter – chart below.
ENSO-2022-23.jpg (100.48K)
Number of downloads: 14
A quotes from NOAA…
“The outlook (precipitation) does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”
“Mild La Nina forecasts are the least accurate of the ENSO forecasts”
Precipitation probabilities chart for 2022-23
Precip-2022-23.jpg (99.76K)
Number of downloads: 18
Somewhat matching years with mild La Nina’s
1998-99
2007-08
2010-11
Use same links shown above posts
